I.  Introduction:  The coming transition from the Christian year 1999 to the year 2000 is an appropriate time for looking back on our past century and looking forward to the next century.  We should remember, however, that this transition to a new year does not carry the same significant change in numbers for the majority of the world's population which does not live in lands where Christianity is so predominant.  For instance, this year 2000 will be the year 5760 in the Jewish calendar, the year 4698 in the Chinese calendar, the year 2544 in the Thereveda Buddhist calendar, the year 1921
of the Saka Era in the Hindu calendar, the year 1420 of the Muslim calendar, the year 1378 of the Persian calendar, and the year 157 of the Baha'i Era calendar.  And even the Christian Gregor-ian calendar, later discovered to have put the date of Jesus' birth in the wrong year, started with the year one, so the 20th century would not come to an end until the
end of the year 2000.  Nevertheless the shift from the 1900s to 2000 in our own calendar is a good time to look back over the past 100 years and look forward to the next 100 years.

II.  Looking at the past century.

    A.  It was in 1941 that Henry Luce first used the term "The American Century" to describe the 20th century, but that term seems even more appropriate now after the end of World War II and the Cold War.  During the 20th century the United States has moved into international politics in a big way, having been the deciding factor in both World Wars and in the Cold War.  It looks as if we will be having a continuation of the present "Pax Americana" (which may be considered to have begun in 1945) for at least 20 years.

    B.  The 19th century was the British century.  From the defeat of Napoleon in 1815 to the beginning of World War I in 1914, we had the "Pax Britannica" or British Peace.  Wars occurred, like the American Civil War and the Franco-Prussian War, but the British with their superior navy ruled the world, and it could be truthfully pointed out in 1900 that the sun was always shining on some part of the territory of the British Empire.

    C.  But shifting to a different kind of concern, this past 20th century was the bloodiest ever in human history averaging over a million persons a year being killed in war and another 1.7 million a year by genocide, that is, the deliberate organized killing of large numbers of civilians for political, religious, ideological, and ethnic reasons.
         1.  WW I (1914-1918); WW II (1937-45); genocide in Germany and Russia (1935- 52) Korean War (1950-53); Vietnamese War (1954-73); massacres by Communists in China (1950-75); Cambodia "killing fields" (1975-79);
Persian Gulf War (1990-91); ethnic cleansing in Yugoslavia & Rwanda & Sudan (1992-99).
         2.  National governments have become ever more efficient at killing their enemies, whether in other countries or in their own country.
         3.  At the beginning of the century a majority of war deaths were among military personnel, but by the end of the century 90% of the war casualties were civilians.
         4.  More and more people are beginning to realize that the international system based on national sovereignty must be changed and that there must be some limitations on the power of what national governments
are permitted to do.  Nevertheless, it is still the case, even in this country, that the focus is mainly on how many of "our" people have escaped being killed without much concern about how many "others" die--about the "body count" of those who are not Americans.

    D.  Of course, the political struggles for global dominance and the sorry wars & genocides are not the only things which have occurred in the past century.  In the area of science and technology, we have seen amazing developments.
         1.  Fundamental changes took place in our understanding of the world:  Planck's quantum theory - 1900; Einstein's special theory of relativity - 1905; discovery of cosmic rays - 1910; Bohr's quantum mechanics - 1913; Einstein's general theory of relativity - 1915; Heisenberg's uncertainty principle - 1927; plutonium fission - 1940; radiocarbon dating - 1947; DNA structure explained - 1951; 1st human on the moon - 1969; in vitro fertilization - 1978; Hubble space telescope - 1990; cloning of sheep - 1996.
         2.  Some inventions in communications & transportation have produced a smaller world:  transatlantic wireless telegraph - 1901; airplane - 1903; radio amphlifier - 1906; newsreels - 1909; gyro-compass - 1911; rocket engine - 1926; TV - 1927; color TV - 1928; teletype - 1928; jet engine - 1930; FM radio - 1933; electronic computer - 1942; cellular telephone - 1947; transistor - 1947; fiber optics - 1955; artificial satellite - 1957; minicomputer - 1960; video-tape cassette - 1969; microcomputer - 1973; worldwide web system - 1992.
         3.  Some inventions have meant a more comfortable life: air-conditioning - 1902; assembly-line production of autos - 1903; crawler tractor - 1904; electric vacuum cleaner - 1907; cellophane - 1908; automatic transmission - 1910; automobile self-starter - 1911; tungsten filament - 1913; stainless steel - 1916; electric razor - 1917; automatic toaster - 1918; talking movie - 1927; freon - 1930; launderette - 1934; nylon - 1937; fiberglass - 1938; photocopier - 1938; flourescent lamp - 1938; teflon - 1938; tupperware - 1945; microwave oven - 1947; long-playing records - 1947; polaroid camera - 1948; music synthesizer - 1964; compact disc - 1972; electronic pocket calculator - 1972; home videosystem - 1975; laptop computer - 1987.
         4.  Some inventions & discoveries have been important for health: Schick test - 1913; Geiger counter - 1913;  nsulin - 1922; penicillin - 1928; electroencephalograph - 1929; electronic microscope - 1931; corneal contact lens - 1948; pacemaker - 1952; polio vaccine - 1954 (oral vaccine - 1960); auto seatbelt - 1959; measles vaccine - 1963; identification of HIV - 1964; human heart transplant - 1967; CAT scan 1973; auto airbag - 1974; artificial heart - 1982.
         5.  On the other hand, the population of earth went from 1.7 billion to 6 billion, the ozone layer is being destroyed, global warming has been verified, air pollution is getting worse in most of the world, the oceans are being overfished, desertification is occurring in much of the world, and the rain forests as well as other forests are being destroyed.

   E.  Memorable political developments of the 20th century include:  the Bolshevik revolution in Russia - 1917; League of Nations created - 1919; fascism in Italy, Japan, Germany, & Spain - 1922-38; United Nations created - 1945; state of Israel created - 1947-48; Chinese Communists takeover of mainland China - 1945-49; decolonization of Africa & Asia - 1947-77 (Bandung Conference in 1955); Castro's Cuban Revolution - 1959; Civil Rights Act and Johnson's "Great Society" - 1964-65; rise of fundamentalist Muslim terrorism in Iran & elsewhere - 1979; end of Cold War - 1989; end of
apartheid in South Africa - 1990-94; ethnic fighting in former Yugoslavia - 1992-99; India & Pakistan explode nuclear devices - 1998; ethnic fighting in Africa - 1960-present.
         1.  Francis Fukuyama's "End of History" thesis:  democratic capitalism has triumphed, and we see the end of a certain kind of history where ideological differences have led to use of violence to decide who is "right."
         2.  Increasing understanding of economics means more economic stability but also increasing conflict between the rich and the poor (as with WTO protests) on how to use that knowledge.

    F.  Summarizing, we see the increasing influence of science and of the resultant technology such as the internet and genetic engineering, the spread of industrialization to the whole world, the increasing use of birth control and smaller families, the spreading of democracy and involvement of the masses (even as more wealth and power gets concentrated in the hands of a few), & increasing political power for women & minorities.  At the same time there is a vigorous fundamentalism which opposes these changes.

III.  Looking ahead to the 21st century

    A.  Traditional agrarian religions are putting up a last-ditch stand but will gradually lose influence as more people are better educated. 
        1.  Science-religion clashes will intensify due to greater human capacity to control children's heredity & to the life-death decisions to be made by all, not just older persons.
        2.  Control of education or propagandizing of children will be a big issue.
        3.  Equality of opportunity in education will be a focus of controversy.
        4.  The large amount of migration in the world community will lead to a diminished role for traditional religions & an increased role for philosophy and "new religions" such as Unitarian-Universalism.  It will be similar to the Hellenistic period (300 BC-300 AD) in the Mediterranean when old religions gave way to new religions and philosophies.

   B.  Women & minorities will come into their own as prejudices against them wane.  Widespread use of birth control and ever earlier collective education will greatly decrease the extent to which women are focused on the task of caring for the children.

   C.  Hyperindividualism will occur as people are free to go their own way at earlier ages and to use technology as they wish.
       1.  A danger will be retreating to "virtual realities" rather than living in real world.
       2.  A need for community may create new kinds of temporary "extended families."


   D.  We can expect scientific exploration not only of space but also of the oceans.
       1.  The possibility of finding other life in universe will increase.
       2.  We can expect floating islands in the oceans to live on and seabed mining.
       3.  Scientific knowledge & technology will allow us to control weather on earth.
       4.  Fusion energy will be developed to meet the energy needs of everyone.

   E.  Perhaps neo-Marxism will be generated at the global level in reaction to the concentration of wealth as rich get richer and poor are left out.
       1.  Either we will have democratic political institutions which control wealth or we'll go to socialism.  WTO demonstrations are indication of what will happen in the future.
       2.  The powerless will learn better how to use nonviolent tactics against the military and police forces of the elite.  Technologies such as the internet will also aid the less powerful to get their voice heard despite the effort of the powerful to keep them ignorant.

   F.  Expect continued globalization and shift from internationalism to globalism in group attitudes and political structures.  Democratic global federal government must come as best way to do deal with global problems and problems of justice within society.

IV.  The future can be the realization of the ideals of the Enlightenment which gave birth to the U.S. and modern Europe (the New World Order of our Founding Fathers)

   A.  the end of authoritarian aristocracy and authoritarian religion

   B.  public policy made by the governed--that is, democracy

   C.  human rights and equality of opportunity for all

   D.  reliance on impartial reason and empirical evidence--on philosophy and science and on a religion which is naturalistic rather than supernaturalistic

   E.  education for everyone so the result will be progress and a justified optimism about the future.